In Tyler Shough’s inaugural full season as a starter (the New Orleans Saints are having difficulties), while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take another concerning step backward. This simulation results in them claiming a second consecutive division title, which earns them the No. 1 seed within the division. As they approach 2026, the Chicago Bears may be the most captivating team, with numerous factors suggesting both improvement and decline. Liam Coen is continuing to develop a strong contender in Jacksonville, and the team secured a second straight division title by winning four games in a row to conclude the year. During a fiercely contested AFC South race (the Tennessee Titans barely miss the playoffs with eight victories), while the Indianapolis Colts fall short for the sixth consecutive season. Aaron Rodgers has yet to commit to the team for 2026 — and even if he does, the Steelers’ schedule is not pretty.
However, the Bengals have returned after four years since their back-to-back appearances against the Chiefs in the conference championship games. In this situation, it’s quite possible that the team will evaluate Carson Beck closely, but they are also likely searching for his immediate successor in the 2027 NFL Draft. It’s difficult not to feel sympathy for the Cardinals, as three of the league’s top teams contend for their division. The Buffalo Bills regain their position at the top of their division — while the Patriots have six fewer victories in this simulation compared to 2025. The FPM forecasts the Pittsburgh team to achieve slightly over eight wins (and a total of five would come as a significant surprise), yet it’s still among the possible outcomes. Utilizing PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, we conducted a simulation of the 2026 season, which predicts each of the 272 games based on PFSN’s power and strength of schedule rankings.
- The Cowboys finish the season facing their division rivals, the Commanders and Giants.
- Should the eight divisions unfold precisely as depicted in our anticipated standings — this is how the 14-team playoff bracket would appear.
- Adding Azeez Ojulari was a pretty nice move (and I like what this team did in the draft), continuing to stock great players.
- Just don’t look at the weeks immediately after, or — for reasons that I will explain next — before.
- The Eagles are heading back to the playoffs—potentially all the way to the Super Bowl.
High point: Weeks 1-5.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning is a big betting favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. The Seahawks’ offensive unknowns seemed to influence the final win-loss decision whenever more stable operations appeared on the calendar. Despite having a week off to prepare, and the added benefit of catching the Commanders on short rest fresh off a loss at Kansas City, the Seahawks are unable to capture a potentially season-altering victory at the midpoint. The win pushes Seattle above .500 for the first and last time in 2025.
Toughest game to call: Week 3 at Bears.
In all seriousness, both teams failed to make the playoffs last year but should be expected to challenge this year. The Raiders would field plenty of calls for the first overall pick, with the team unlikely to be in the market for one of the draft’s top quarterback prospects. Meanwhile, for only the third time since the 2013 season, the AFC champions will be a team other than the Kansas City Chiefs or the Patriots, as both missed the playoffs. All four teams finish with winning records, as the NFC North maintains its status as one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. The New York Jets show signs of progression with seven wins and have an enviable stack of 2027 draft picks to improve their young roster further.
Six of the bottom seven teams could realistically finish the year with first- (second-), or third-year quarterbacks under center. With just 0.3 wins separating the Jaguars and the Houston Texans (and just two wins between all four teams), the AFC South is expected to be the tightest division. It also gives us the number of simulations in which a team wins the division and makes the playoffs. For preseason rankings — it incorporates how quarterback and coaching changes might impact those teams.
Ultimately, despite my narrative desire for it, predicting a victory for Detroit in this scenario proves to be challenging for me.
Even though the bottom falls out after Thanksgiving — I suspect many of those December games — like at Houston and against Atlanta — will end up being close. After winning consecutive road games, including this matchup at Seattle, the Cardinals hit the midpoint at 6-3, putting themselves in the thick of the NFC West race. Tampa could certainly hockey betting tips outperform my projection early on, but I’ll be more confident in the timing of the team’s eventual course correction once its talented left tackle and sure-handed WR2 return to the starting lineup. Back-to-back wins give the devoted NOLA fans something to celebrate — and rookie Tyler Shough a moment of respite in an otherwise-challenging rookie season. Four of Carolina’s six projected wins are within the NFC South, marking just the second time the franchise has posted a winning divisional record in a decade. Instead — Atlanta finishes with nine total losses, allowing Tampa to sit its starters in the regular-season finale.
Went back and forth on this game until ultimately siding with Atlanta. The 2025 Panthers could be a prime example of a team that’s better than its projected record. A strong start would do wonders for this franchise. If Bryce Young’s sophomore resurgence carries over into Year 3 and the team’s revamped defense clicks from the jump, Carolina could certainly win at Jacksonville. Unable to translate competitive performances — including this close one at Lambeau — into Ws, the Panthers hit the midpoint with just two wins on their ledger. The floor is pretty high for him, and I thus wouldn’t be surprised if he and his squad undercut my analysis here by making a run to the playoffs similar to what Bo Nix and the Broncos accomplished last year.
With the teams owning picks 2-6 all likely looking for a quarterback in this scenario, it’s highly likely the Jets would need to use that draft capital to pull off a trade. In their first five games of the season — the Eagles face four teams that made the 2024 playoffs … As high as I am on the 49ers, even great teams have bad games. You’ll find our conference seeding for the entire playoff field, including our individual picks for the eight division winners and six wild-card teams.
Could Jaxson Dart leap over Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to lead the Giants to the playoffs this year, proving both of us wrong here? Just don’t look at the weeks immediately after, or — for reasons that I will explain next — before. In my scenario (the bad vibes spill over into a rough start that reaches its nadir in this loss to the Panthers), which drops the ‘Boys to 1-5. This stretch could make or break a return to the playoffs if things go a little better than either of us is forecasting during Brian Schottenheimer’s first season.
I like the Vikings’ general approach — and I believe McCarthy is going to be a great quarterback in Minnesota. What better time for the Vikes to pull off a huge win than in J.J. After their transatlantic trip, the Vikings get a bye — then hit a three-game skid. Adding veteran running back Josh Jacobs to the offense worked out great last season, and rookie receiver Matthew Golden is going to be a stud this year. The emotional letdown gives this setback an edge in this category over being swept by the Bears for the first time since 2007. In the end (Rodgers’ former squad stays on an early roll while taking some of the starch out of Pittsburgh’s own encouraging start), dropping the Steelers to 4-3.
A tough one at Tampa at the end of November kicks off a brutal stretch that includes home-and-away tilts against the Rams, as well as trips to Houston and Cincinnati. When this team is at full strength, I think it can be a problem for anybody — including the mighty Eagles. But I’d be surprised if this team doesn’t encounter its fair share of growing pains as it ushers in a new era of Saints football. But I wouldn’t count out a rested Saints team making a statement at home against a hated rival.
There are enough veteran leaders on hand for New Orleans to win twice as many games as projected, presuming competent quarterback play. But as promising as the improved pass rush might look on paper, I won’t be convinced the team has fixed its issues in that area until I see it when the games count. It’ll be fun to see what the discussion is around these two teams (and this game), a few months from now. The Packers are a very good team, and they will make the playoffs for the third straight time. The Giants have a window to potentially stack a couple of wins together here, when they host the Chargers (who must endure the dreaded early East Coast start time), then visit the rebuilding Saints.
